For the first time in 67 years there will be ten Best Picture nominees, rather than the typical five, at this year’s Oscars — which is not good news if you’re a betting man. So we’ve done some research to help your odds. Among what we discovered: In the past ten years only one book based on a true story has won Best Picture — A Beautiful Mind in 2002. So if history repeats itself The Blind Side, Up in the Air, An Education, and Precious won’t be bringing home top honors. And despite its marker as the highest grossing film in history, we can pull Avatar from the list, as well as District 9, as sci-fi flicks aren’t popular with the Academy. Comedies are rarely winners — even dark ones — which rules out A Serious Man. Plus, the Coen brothers already won in 2007 with No Country for Old Men. And let’s face it, as adorable as Up! was, there’s no way an animated film could ever win in this category.
And then there were two: Inglourious Basterds elicited mixed reactions from critics, and we have a tough time believing that it will succeed where Pulp Fiction failed back in ’94. And so we’re left by default with The Hurt Locker, Kathryn Bigelow’s critical darling that takes an intimate look into the Iraq war. It has been a while since a modern war movie won (1996′s The English Patient, if you’re playing along at home), and it would be first time in history that a female-directed movie took home Best Picture.
Do you agree with our reasoning? What film do you think will win Best Picture? Sound off below.