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For the first time in 67 years there will be ten Best Picture nominees, rather than the typical five, at this year’s Oscars — which is not good news if you’re a betting man. So we’ve done some research to help your odds. Among what we discovered: In the past ten years only one book based on a true story has won Best Picture — A Beautiful Mind in 2002. So if history repeats itself The Blind Side, Up in the Air, An Education, and Precious won’t be bringing home top honors. And despite its marker as the highest grossing film in history, we can pull Avatar from the list, as well as District 9, as sci-fi flicks aren’t popular with the Academy. Comedies are rarely winners — even dark ones — which rules out A Serious Man. Plus, the Coen brothers already won in 2007 with No Country for Old Men. And let’s face it, as adorable as Up! was, there’s no way an animated film could ever win in this category.
And then there were two: Inglourious Basterds elicited mixed reactions from critics, and we have a tough time believing that it will succeed where Pulp Fiction failed back in ‘94. And so we’re left by default with The Hurt Locker, Kathryn Bigelow’s critical darling that takes an intimate look into the Iraq war. It has been a while since a modern war movie won (1996’s The English Patient, if you’re playing along at home), and it would be first time in history that a female-directed movie took home Best Picture.
Do you agree with our reasoning? What film do you think will win Best Picture? Sound off below.
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8 Responses
Beauty and the beast was close to winning in ‘91 as far as animated films and best picture go
Right – but that was before they had their own category. I LOVED Up! – I just don’t think the Academy will take it seriously enough.
Yeah, here is my only problem with that logic. The Hurt Locker is by far the worst out of that bunch, at least from what I have seen. The fact that any critics like that movie is a mystery to me. The writing was terrible, acting was bad, cinematography was lackluster, and the plot was poorly fleshed out. It was one suspenseful bomb diffusing sequence after another, and it got boring very fast. If it wins I will lose all faith in “critic’s” opinions.
I think that Up in the Air will take the cake. Even if you have provided sound logic, you just can’t argue with bad movies.
Um… Well who ever wrote this article should know that for the last 20 years the film with the most oscar nominations won best picture 15 times, so that would mean it is “Avatar” VS. “The Hurt Locker”! The way that this writter takes “Avatar” out of the running obviously hasnt looked in on how well the film is tracking on the road to the oscars.
@Flavorwiresucks Being a scifi movie is totally a detriment to winning Best Picture – name one flick that disproves this. The only thing I can think of is The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King — and I would say that that only half counts as it’s based on a famous work of literature.
Not only is Avatar eliminated from the race because it is Sci-Fi, but it is also being compared alongside another sci fi movie with district 9, this completely eliminates it from the best picture race, plus no movie has ever won best picture without being at least nominated for best original/adapted screenplay… Though if it is as you say Avatar Vs. The Hurt Locker, the Academy will be so split that neither of them will win! Inglourious Basterds would sneak in and take the gold… The safe vote in this close best picture race is The Hurt Locker.
AVATAR — industry game changer, audience and critical darling (and highest grosser ever) will upset the CW and get the nod. money in the bank.
the hurt locker sucked so bad i could hardly wait for it to end…that’s why it only made a few million dollars at the box office, cuz it stank so bad